A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
